NFL Lines 2014, Week 3 Recap

Another mediocre week – 7-9 altogether, for a running total of 23-25 on the year. In terms of the obvious blunders:

• I should’ve considered the injuries to St. Louis more significantly, and should not have overweighted their win against the hapless Bucs the week before
• Is Kirk Cousins this year’s Nick Foles? These Washington games are not going to be easy to pick until I can figure out how consistently Cousins will play, especially as NFL teams see more and more tape of him.
• 14 points is too many to give, particularly against a team with nothing to lose like Oakland.
• The Bears are basically the Cowboys.

My main weakness is taking home favorites – I’m 8-13 in those games. Unfortunately, I don’t compensate for that in any other area: I’m 2-1 in taking home dogs, 8-6 in taking road dogs, and 5-5 in taking road favorites. Giving the points with the home team is the most common wager sports fans make, so it’s important not to fall into the trap of becoming a homer.

Looking ahead, week 4 marks the start of the bye week for the year. How will the teams going on bye in week 5 look at their matchup this week? Will they already be on vacation, or are they going to go all out knowing they have two weeks until they have to play again?