NFL Lines 2014, Week 3

Thursday Night Recap

Well, that was a disaster. In taking the Bucs and the points, I made mention of them not overthinking things. Should’ve listened to myself in the Week 2 Recap, when I named the Bucs as one of the NFL’s terrible teams this year. From now on, no overthinking.

Week 3 Games

San Diego +2.5 at Buffalo

Sure, sure, Buffalo has looked good so far this year in winning at Chicago and trouncing Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins at home. But the Chargers D is much better than the Bears, and Phillip Rivers is a tad better than Tannehill. Further, San Diego has looked even better (in my opinion) than Buffalo this year. They could be due for an emotional let down after last week’s huge win against Seattle, and it’s the ol’ “West Coast team plays a 1 p.m. game on the East coast,” but I think the Chargers experience playing much tougher competition than the Bills will pay off for them this weekend.

Dallas at St. Louis +1

I’m confused as to why Dallas is favored on the road here. I know St. Louis QB Sam Bradford is out for the year, but they looked pretty fiesty in winning on the road in Tampa Bay last week, and they were projected to have one of the better defenses in the NFL this year. Dallas can’t depend on its defense, so it needs its offense to carry it. Against the Rams’ D (who have a bye week to look forward to next week), I don’t see them getting it done.

Washington at Philadelphia -6

This is another of those “ugh” games I mentioned on Thursday. I’d stay away from it, but I’ll go with the home team, even though it seems like a lot of points. Maybe Kirk Cousins can win in Philadelphia. But maybe the Eagles defense gets a little better every week, and wins going away.

Houston +1 at NY Giants

This game started with the Texans as a 2.5-point favorite. but New York money has made the Giants a home favorite. I’m not sure what the Giants have going for them, other than the support of their seemingly delusional fans. I suppose the Giants will win a game at some point this season, but I don’t see it happening this week.

Minnesota +10 at New Orleans

I know the Vikings looked terrible last week (save for their game opening scoring drive) against the Patriots, but most teams facing Bill Belichick coming off a loss would look bad against New England. Yes, Adrian Peterson is out and there’s a cloud hanging over the team because of him. Yes, Drew Brees is a good QB at home. But I’m not ready to give 10 points with a team that’s winless on the season and couldn’t win in Cleveland.

Tennessee at Cincinatti -6.5

At this point, I’m willing to give just about any number with the Bengals’ D. Against Jack Locker back to doing Jake Locker things, all the more reason to do so.

Baltimore -2.5 at Cleveland

I hate picking the evil Ravens over Cleveland, but history has not been on the Browns’ side in this matchup.

Green Bay at Detroit -2.5

This is another of the “ugh” games. Aaron Rodgers is the better QB, and Eddie Lacy is a better RB than the Lions’ two-headed monster of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, but I just don’t trust the Packer’s woeful D against a team with this much offensive fire power, particularly when they’re playing at home.

Indianapolis -7 at Jacksonville

It’s a lot of points to give on the road with a winless team, but the Jaguars are just awful, and the competition Indy has faced this year should make this feel like a scrimmage to them.

Oakland at New England -14

It certainly seems like too many points, but with the way the Patriots dismantled the Vikings on the road last week and how bad the Raiders have been, you get the feeling Vegas wished it could’ve made the line Patriots -21.5. I don’t see Belichick and Brady taking their foot off the gas.

Arizona +3 at San Francisco

The biggest red flag in taking Arizona is that Carson Palmer is out. Oh, and their backup QB isn’t doing so great either. But I’ll take the home team getting points against a team that looked shaken in losing to the Bears at home last week.

Denver at Seattle -5

Was Denver looking ahead to this game in escaping at home against the Chiefs last week? Maybe. But for this one, I’m going with the old adage of simply not going against Seattle at home. Not overthinking it, see?

Kansas City +3.5 at Miami

Here’s hoping the Chiefs don’t wilt in the heat the way the Patriots did.

Pittsburgh at Carolina -3

The Panthers struggle to score, which is probably why this line is only three points. Cam Newton has no one to throw to, but I think his defense carries the game.

Chicago at NY Jets -3

I think this is a pretty even matchup. The Jets have the better defense (although both teams’ secondary are terrible), the Bears have the better offense. I’ll take the defense at home.