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NFL Lines 2014, Week 8

October 25, 2014

This week, in light of last week’s debacle, I’m going to try something different. I’ll list the games, what I think the spread should be, and what the actual spread is.

Game My Line Actual Line Comment Pick Best Bet?
Minnesota at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay -3 Tampa Bay -2.5 It’s telling that Vegas doesn’t trust the home team with a full field goal here. Minnesota
Detroit at Atlanta Detroit -1 Detroit -3.5 While Atlanta is technically the home team, this game is being played in London. I think Atlanta will struggle to move the ball against the Lions defense. These are two teams moving in different directions. Detroit
Buffalo at NY Jets Buffalo -1 NY Jets -3 I know Buffalo is without Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. I know the Jets have played a tough schedule and have a defense that can hang with teams. But I know Geno Smith is not a good QB, and I think the Bills defense is plenty good enough to stop him. Buffalo
Chicago at New England New England -3 New England -6 Yikes. The Bears certainly haven’t looked great this year, but are they this bad? After all, they’re 3-1 on the road! I could see the Patriots winning by a touchdown, but I can also see Belichick doing just enough to get his team the win as they face an even bigger test next week against Denver. Chicago
Seattle at Carolina Seattle -3 Seattle -5.5 Seems like Vegas doesn’t want to let go of the story about the Seahawks being the defending Super Bowl champions. There’s little to recommend the Panthers here, and Seattle’s defense should be able to limit the Panthers. Seattle
Miami at Jacksonville Miami -6 Miami -6 Well, here’s one game I called correctly. Miami is just too hot right now. This might be the gift of the week. Miami Yes
Baltimore at Cincinnati Cincinnati -1 Baltimore -2 The Bengals certainly miss AJ Green, but more than the absence of their top player has to account for how wrong things have gone for them since their bye week. Baltimore, meanwhile, has looked mostly dominant this year. This is a revenge game for the Ravens, who lost to Cinci in week 1. Hard not to like a home dog, but the Ravens are the better team right now. Baltimore Yes
Houston at Tennessee Tennessee -1.5 Houston -3 Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an elite NFL QB. But neither is anyone the Titans are going to put on the field. Houston
St. Louis at Kansas City Kansas City -3.5 Kansas City -7 Another intrastate rivalry game for this week. The Chiefs are the better team, but St. Louis can compete St. Louis
Philadelphia at Arizona Arizona -3 Arizona -1.5 I think Philly will struggle to score against a defense as good as Arizona’s. Arizona
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh Indianapolis -5.5 Indianapolis -3.5 I’m not going to be fooled by Pittsburgh’s win over a beat-up Texans team on Monday night. Indianapolis Yes
Oakland at Cleveland Cleveland -3.5 Cleveland -7 I mean…what? The Browns by more than three again? Oakland is not a good team, but I don’t see them rolling over. I think Cleveland is one of those teams that plays up or down to their opponent. Oakland
Green Bay at New Orleans Green Bay -3.5 New Orleans -2.5 In the same way Vegas seems to not want to give up on the story of the dominant Seahawks, they also appear to be struggling with coming to grips over how bad Drew Brees and the Saints are this year. Green Bay
Washington at Dallas Dallas -6.5 Dallas -10 Wow. Wow. Yes, Washington is awful. And who knows if the QB who starts for them will finish the game as well. Dallas

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