NFL Lines 2014, Week 6

Thursday Night Recap

Hooray, I’m 1-5 on Thursday nights! As expected, Andrew Luck kept the Colts moving on offense, and Indy’s defense did just enough to secure the win (and cover).

Sunday’s Games

Denver -9 at NY Jets

This is a potential “look-ahead” game for the Broncos, who have a much bigger challenge next week against the 49ers. It’s a lot of points to give on the road, but I have no faith in Geno Smith and Rex Ryan.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland -1

Hard to say whether this line is more surprising or insulting to the Browns. On the one hand, they set an NFL record last week by coming back from 25 points down to beat the Titans. On the other hand, it was Tennessee. Pittsburgh meanwhile, is a broken team. Their week 1 win over Cleveland (by 3, at home) looks all the more suspect in light of the way they’ve played since then. Cleveland has been a team of two halves this year: cold in the first half, red hot in the second. Imagine if they could put together just three good quarters! I’ll take the team that I think has the greater self-confidence.

Jacksonville +4 at Tennessee

The Titans looked dominant against Cleveland in the first half last week, but that may have been more indicative of how weak the Browns have been in the first half, rather than how good the Titans are. Aaron Hurns, the rookie receiver for the Jaguars could be unstoppable against Tennessee’s secondary.

Green Bay -3 at Miami

Ummmm…this could be the tough line of the week to figure out. The Packers are likely a better home team than road team this year, but Aaron Rodgers has the offense rolling on all cylinders. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are caught between rooting for a .500 finish, and hoping for a high draft pick.

Detroit +1 at Minnesota

The potential absence of Calvin Johnson is notable, but I think the Lions defense makes the difference in this game.

Carolina at Cincinnati -6.5

Let’s hope the Bengals are mad and embarrassed enough about that poor Sunday night performance against New England last week to take it out on the Panthers.

New England at Buffalo +2.5

The Bills and the Patriots always play two games against each other each year, by virtue of being in the same division. The Bills always seem to get blown out in one of them. I’m hoping this isn’t that game this year.

Baltimore -3.5 at Tampa Bay

The Ravens could hardly have looked worse against the Colts last week, but I’ll take John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco against Lovie Smith and ol’ what’s his name.

San Diego -7 at Oakland

I think Vegas forgot to put a “1” in front of the “7” for San Diego this week.

Chicago at Atlanta -3

A game between two broken teams. The Bears are so thin at linebacker this week, they might be pulling fans out of the stands to fill in.

Dallas at Seattle -7.5

Dallas has a potent offense, but their defense is starting to show some holes. If the Seahawks could handle the much better Broncos at home, I don’t think Dallas will prove too difficult for them.

Washington +3.5 at Arizona

This is a game Washington could win, if only because the Cardinals only sort of have a quarterback this week.

NY Giants at Philadelphia -3

The Eagles are a tough team to figure out. Are they good, or not? The Giants seemed awful to start the year, but have turned it around better than any other team (save Indianapolis) the last three weeks. If Vegas thought this was going to be a lower-scoring game, I’d take the Giants.

San Francisco -3 at St. Louis

Austin Davis is competitive at QB for the Rams, which I think is reflected in this line. But Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kapernick should be able to get the job done on the road.

Best Bets

This week, I like the Packers, Seattle, and Chargers.