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NFL Lines 2014, Week 4

September 28, 2014

Thursday Night Recap

Well, true to form this year, the Thursday night game was a blowout. Unfortunately, it didn’t go the way I expected. Hard to predict that any QB, much less one who’s played as well as Kirk Cousins has this year, will throw four interceptions. And he lost a fumble, too. Oof.

Onto the picks!

Miami at Oakland +3.5 (in London)

This game is Roger Goodell’s annual folly to try to have American football catch on overseas. Not gonna happen. Way past time to give up this ridiculous notion. I’d rather see attrition before a team is actually placed in London. As for the line, the Dolphins couldn’t even say if Ryan Tannehill would be their starter this week, and I’m supposed to take their side? I’ll take the team that went into Foxboro and almost stole a game from the Patriots last week.

Green Bay at Chicago +2

This was a surprising line. Sure, Green Bay has been winning in Chicago for years with Brett Favre and now Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers have hardly been impressive this year. Yes, they will be the more desperate of the two teams, as they look to avoid going 1-3, but the Bears have recovered nicely since losing a number of defensive starters.

Buffalo at Houston -3

EJ Manual on the road? No thank you.

Tennessee at Indianapolis -7

A lot of points – the second week in a row the Colts have been favored by a touchdown – but no way would I put money on Charlie Whitehurst.

Carolina at Baltimore -3

I can see Carolina winning this game, but I’m guessing Baltimore will do enough to pull out the win.

Detroit -1.5 at NY Jets

The Bears just destroyed the Jets on Monday night, and now the Lions (who likely have a defense at least as good as the Bears) are giving only 1.5 points against a team coming off a short week?

Tampa Bay +7 at Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay is awful. They don’t have a QB. Their star RB is hurt. But if Vegas isn’t willing to make the Steelers a 10-point favorite, I’m not going to back them.

Jacksonville at San Diego -12.5

It’s a lot of points, but the Jaguars are awful even with a likely upgrade at QB in rookie Blake Bortles. The Chargers have two hurt RBs, but I think their defense is good enough to keep this one from being close.

Philadelphia +4 at San Franscisco

This was a surprising line. I could almost see San Francisco being a three-point home favorite, but four? Seems just a bit too rich against a team that can pile on the points.

Atlanta at Minnesota +3.5

I believe in Teddy Bridgewater.

New Orleans -3 at Dallas

This was the surprising line of the week. Dallas seems like a live team, while New Orleans looks lackluster at best. So why are the Saints favored on the road here? No idea. But if Vegas says they’re the team to beat in this game, I’ll go with it.

New England at Kansas City +3

Kansas City looked good enough last week to convince me they can win this game.

Best Bets

Not a lot to like this week. But if I had to pick three games, I would go with the Colts, Lions, and Chargers.

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